Erin's Sacramento Short Sale Experiment, Part VIII

Well it is time for my eighth installment of Erin's Sacramento Short Sale Experiment! Curious what has happened in the world of short sales in our Sacramento metro area since the last time? I am anxious to see if 2011 continues the way it seemed to begin -- to bring a high volume of active short sale listings, and more importantly, more closed short sales. For those of you not following along at home, or perhaps if you are reading this for the first time, my short sale experiment is tracking a few different Sacramento zip codes to see what how the short sale activity increases or decreases over time as compared with traditional resale listings (where there is a seller with equity in a "normal transaction") and to bank-owned resale transactions. My hypothesis at the start of this experiment: the number of short sales will grow over time, as will their dominance in our greater Sacramento marketplace (overall percentage of listings). I have continued to list more short sale properties, and over the nearly two years I have been tracking this information, it seems my hypothesis has been proven to be true. Let's see how this new data compares to the "control data" for the experiment and also to last installment...

95624 is the section of Elk Grove closest to Hwy 99. As of right this second according to MLS, there are a total of 354 active listings there. 244/390 listings are short sales. The median price in that zip code in April 2011 was $212,000 according to Trendgraphix. The result vs. the control data? Control data was 68.6% of all active listings in 95624 were short sales, vs. 65.3% last installment, vs. 62.6% this month. DECREASE over the control data, and a decrease over last installment. Number of 2010 closed short sales - 312. YTD closed in 2011 - 105....Active Foreclosure / REO listings - 59.

95610 is a section of Citrus Heights. As of right this second according to MLS, there are a total of 199 active listings there. 117/199 listings are short sales. The median price in that zip code in April 2011 was $165,000 according to Trendgraphix. The result vs. the control data? Control data was 60.3% of all active listings in 95610 were short sales, vs. 53.4% last installment, vs. 58.8% this month. DECREASE over the control data, and an increase over last installment. Number of 2010 closed short sales - 109. YTD closed in 2011 - 49....Active Foreclosure / REO listings - 36.

95826 is a section of Rosemont and College Greens. As of right this second according to MLS, there are a total of 180 active listings there. 105/180 listings are short sales. The median price in that zip code in April 2011 was also $160,000 according to Trendgraphix. The result vs. the control data? Control data was 62.2% of all active listings in 95826 were short sales, vs. 51.0% last installment, vs. 58.3% this month = DECREASE over the control data, and an increase over last installment. Number of 2010 closed short sales - 57. YTD closed in 2011 - 27....Active Foreclosure / REO listings - 48.

95864 is a section of Sierra Oaks, Arden Park, and Arden Manor. As of right this second according to MLS, there are a total of 132 active listings there. 43/132 listings are short sales. The median price in that zip code in April 2011 was $265,000 according to Trendgraphix. The result vs. the control data? Control data was 17.0% of all active listings in 95864 were short sales, vs. 42.5% last installment, vs. 32.6% this month. INCREASE over the control data and decrease over last month. Number of 2010 closed short sales - 16. YTD closed in 2011 - 5....Active Foreclosure / REO listings - 12.

95818 is a section of Midtown, Land Park, and Curtis Park. As of right this second according to MLS, there are a total of 102 active listings there. 21/102 listings are short sales. The median price in that zip code in April 2011 was $348,000 according to Trendgraphix. The result vs. the control data? Control data was 16.0% of all active listings in 95818 were short sales, vs. 27.6% last installment, vs. 20.6% this month. INCREASE over the control data, and decrease over the last installment. Number of 2010 closed short sales - 23. YTD closed in 2011 - 8....Active Foreclosure / REO listings - 8.

95819 is a section of East Sacramento. As of right this second according to MLS, there are a total of 85 active listings there. 17/85 listings are short sales. The median price in that zip code in April 2011 was $369,000 according to Trendgraphix. The result vs. the control data? Control data was 19.7% of all active listings in 95819 were short sales, vs. 23.1% last month, vs. 20.0 this month. INCREASE over the control data, and decrease over the last installment. Number of 2010 closed short sales - 15. YTD closed in 2011 - 13....Active Foreclosure / REO listings - 3.

So in summary - of the six Sacramento area zip codes I am tracking for my experiment, 3 of them experienced a decrease in the number of active short sale listings from last installment, while 3 experienced an increase over the control data...interesting. It appears that areas with higher median sales prices are showing an increase in short sale activity, while the areas with the lower median prices are showing a decrease in short sale activity. AND while I have not specifically been tracking this data, it appears that there are an increasing number of Foreclosure / REO listings on the market...you will note in a few of the areas I am tracking, if you combine the number of short sale listings and foreclosures, that accounts for nearly 75% or more of the total listings in that area! That's a HUGE percentage of the overall micro-market. Since I just started tracking that statistic for this little project, we will have to see how those numbers compare in the future. My phone definitely keeps ringing and I continue to receive emails - I am fielding lots of inquiries from homeowners looking for more information and insight from my short sale experience...buyers too are really curious about the short sale process since they are encountering so many short sale listings in our marketplace. Also (you will be aware of this if you follow me on Twitter or Facebook), I closed many of my own short sale listings since the last installment of Erin's Sacramento Short Sale Experiment...until next time!

Erin's Sacramento Short Sale Experiment, Part I
Erin's Sacramento Short Sale Experiment, Part II
Erin's Sacramento Short Sale Experiment, Part III
Erin's Sacramento Short Sale Experiment, Part IV
Erin's Sacramento Short Sale Experiment, Part V
Erin's Sacramento Short Sale Experiment, Part VI
Erin's Sacramento Short Sale Experiment, Part VII